The Market IS Turning!

By Steve Murray The Market IS Turning LORE Magazine August 2009
I noticed a spate of good news coming out of June and July housing reports. First the REAL Trends Housing Market Report said that June closings were the best in three years when compared to the same month a year ago. Case Shiller noted that prices were steadying after two and half years of declines. The National Association of Realtors indicated that the Pending Index showed steady improvement over the past few months. All good and all pointed in the right way.We subscribe to the point of view that the worst of this downturn is behind us. Sure, foreclosures may well be headed up in the next year or two, short sales will be with us for awhile and the entire process of buying, financing, appraising and closing housing deals will continue to be frustrating. Yet, despite the data, but instead because of the meetings we've had with real estate professionals around the country, we're convinced that the beginning of the next housing bull market (no not like that last one) is within reach. Doesn’t seem to matter what the conditions are, these sales professionals report that they've adapted to this new market and have learned how to do business and make an income even in these times. When the professional on the street starts to turn away from the negative aspects of the industry and talk about the opportunities then we know for sure that good times can’t be that far away.So enough about the data for now. We expect that our July closing numbers will be better than June’s and that August will follow suit. Yes, the volumes will turn back down again in the fall, but that is due to a seasonal change and not a cyclical one. And next spring we'll see higher sales than we did in the spring of 2009. While we don’t foresee a return to the halcyon days of 2003-2005, nor do we see being stuck at 2007-2009 numbers for much longer. Credit markets are clearing, the backlog of distressed properties will clear and homeowners will still have most--if not all--of the benefits they've always enjoyed with homeownership--you know, the gutters and yard, leaky roof and air conditioning that never seems to work when you need it to.All kidding aside, there is no evidence that Americans have fallen out of love with homeownership. Even with a small decline in homeownership rates, over two thirds of households in our country prefer to own their home.